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Montgomery County UDA CalculationsCalculating UDA Size Requirements Based on 10 Year and 20 Year Population Estimates Date: February 28, 2011 Locality: Montgomery County, VA DRAFT Worksheet for Review Purposes - Revised to reflect 2010 Census Figures Table 1 - Population Projections * Locality 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2010-2020 2020-2030 Montgomery County Current VEC Projections 73,913 83,629 91,363 96,782 103,244 0.58% 0.65% Montgomery County Census 2010 Revised Total 73,913 83,629 94,392 99,991 106,667 Blacksburg 2010 Revised Total 34,922 39,573 42,620 45,148 48,162 Christiansburg 2010 Revised Total 15,402 16,947 21,041 22,289 23,777 Unincorporated 2010 Revised Total 23,589 27,109 30,731 32,554 34,727 Table 2A. Revised Population Projections Based on New 2010 Population Data Locality 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Montgomery County Unincorporated 23,589 27,109 30,731 32,554 34,727 Table 2B - Assumptions Notes Commercial SF per person: 60 Household Size: 2.3 Per County Comp Plan Dwelling Unit/Acre: 4 FAR 0.4 Minimum UDA Sq Ft/Acre @ .4 FAR 17,424 Table 3 - Future Housing and Commercial Square Footage Projections 10 Years 20 Years 10 Years 20 Years 10 years 20 Years 1,823 3,996 792 1,738 109,365 239,779 New Population New Housing Units Commercial Sq Feet VEC AAGR ** VEC ‐State Demographer Projections  will not  be available from VEC until December 2010,  following the release of the 2010 Census  figures.  For the purposes of establishing  County and Town 10 and 20 year projections,  the most recent available VEC data was used to  derive an Average Annual Growth Rate.   Average annual average growth rates are  0.58% for the 2010‐2020 period and .65% for  the 2020‐2030 period. The 2020 and 2030 projections shown for UDA  have been calculated by applying these   growth rates to the latest 2010 US Census base  year population for each locality.  Both Christiansburg and Blacksburg are now  required to adopt UDAs based on the percent  change in population from 2000‐2010. All  calculations for County UDA reflect only the  unincorporated portions of the County since  the UDA legislation requires that the  populations of any towns that are required to  adopt UDAs be EXCLUDED from the County  UDA population calculations.  The average household size of 2.3 persons per  household was used to calculate new housing  units.  Commercial square feet needed to  accomodate new population was estimated at 60  SF of commercial space  per person.  The following assumptions were used for the UDA  calculations.  Table 4 - UDA Requirements - Calculated at 4 DUA and FAR 0.4 Locality 10 years 20 Years 10 years 20 Years 10 years 20 Years Montgomery County Unincorporated 198 434 6 14 204 448 Table 5 - Summary of UDA Area Requirement VALUES PRIOR TO 2010 CENSUS RECALCUATION 204 - Acres - 10 Year 426 - Acres - 10 Year 448 - Acres - 20 Year 841 - Acres - 20 Year Residential Acres needed Employment Acreage Total Acreage Needed Legislative Requirement: Identify sufficient acreage to meet 10 year but not exceed 20 year requirements (see Table 4 using 4 DUA). NOTE - FOR REFERENCE ONLY - THESE ARE THE OLD REQUIREMENTS PRIOR TO THE NEW CENSUS DATA VEC ‐State Demographer Projections  will not  be available from VEC until December 2010,  following the release of the 2010 Census  figures.  For the purposes of establishing  County and Town 10 and 20 year projections,  the most recent available VEC data was used to  derive an Average Annual Growth Rate.   Average annual average growth rates are  0.58% for the 2010‐2020 period and .65% for  the 2020‐2030 period. The 2020 and 2030 projections shown for UDA  have been calculated by applying these   growth rates to the latest 2010 US Census base  year population for each locality.  Both Christiansburg and Blacksburg are now  required to adopt UDAs based on the percent  change in population from 2000‐2010. All  calculations for County UDA reflect only the  unincorporated portions of the County since  the UDA legislation requires that the  populations of any towns that are required to  adopt UDAs be EXCLUDED from the County  UDA population calculations.  The average household size of 2.3 persons per  household was used to calculate new housing  units.  Commercial square feet needed to  accomodate new population was estimated at 60  SF of commercial space  per person.  The following assumptions were used for the UDA  calculations.  The number of residential acres was calculated by  dividing new housing units by the minimum  density required in the legislation (4 DU/Acre).  Employment acreage was calculated by dividing  commercial square feet by the minimum intensity  required by the legislation (.4 FAR).